Played: 4, Points: 6, NRR: 0.730, Rem match: vs Zim
If India beat Zimbabwe, or if the game is washed out, then they will be in the semi-finals, as neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh can get to seven points. However, if India lose their last game, and Pakistan win both their remaining games, and South Africa lose to Pakistan but beat Netherlands, South Africa (on points) and Pakistan (on net run-rate) can finish ahead of India.
Played: 3, Points: 5, NRR: 2.772, Rem matches: vs Pak, Ned
With five points in their kitty from three games, a superb NRR of 2.772, and two games still to come, South Africa are in an excellent position to seal a semi-final slot. If they win one of those two games and get up to seven points, they will finish among the top two. However, if they lose both matches, they will be in contention only if the Bangladesh vs Pakistan match is washed out, in which case both those teams will also finish on five points.
Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: -1.276, Rem match: vs Pak
Bangladesh need to win their last match, and then hope that South Africa get no more than one point from their two remaining games. In that case, both Bangladesh and South Africa will be level on six points, but Bangladesh will finish ahead despite a poorer NRR because they will have three wins compared to South Africa’s two. (In case teams are level on points, the number of wins is the first tie-breaker, followed by NRR.)
If South Africa move to seven points, then Bangladesh will almost certainly be knocked out as their NRR is too far behind India’s. For Bangladesh’s NRR to go past India’s, the sum of the margin of those two results – Bangladesh beating Pakistan and Zimbabwe beating India – will have to exceed 150 runs.
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: 0.765, Rem matches: vs SA, Ban
For Pakistan to make it through with six points, they will have to finish ahead of at least one of India and South Africa. They can finish ahead of South Africa if South Africa get no more than one point from their game against Netherlands, as Pakistan will have more wins.
Pakistan’s superior NRR, which is currently 0.765, means they can also move past India if India lose to Zimbabwe. For instance, even if Pakistan score 160 and win by just one run in each of their last two matches, they will finish ahead of India if Zimbabwe beat them by eight or more runs (after scoring 160). However, if India manage even one point from their last game, they will obviously move beyond Pakistan’s reach.
Played: 4, Points: 3, NRR: -0.313, Rem match: vs Ind
Zimbabwe can get to five points, which means they can be tied on points with Pakistan, Bangladesh (if their game is washed out), and South Africa (if they lose both games), but Zimbabwe’s NRR is too low to make them serious contenders. Even if they beat India by 50 runs, they will need South Africa to lose their two remaining matches by a combined total of 80 runs to overhaul their NRR.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats